A recent Heritage Foundation article claims that U.S. fossil fuel expansion will dismantle the global net-zero agenda. But is this really the future? Global trends—from the IEA’s net-zero roadmap to China’s green tech dominance—suggest otherwise. Geopolitical energy shifts and climate realities are reshaping the landscape. Is clinging to fossil fuels a strategic move, or a costly miscalculation? Let’s dive in.
(LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/us-energy-dominance-vs-global-trends-why-betting-fossil-marcoux-zpypc)
The U.S. Fossil Fuel Boom: A Game Changer or a Costly Gamble?
A recent Heritage Foundation article, “U.S. Energy Dominance Will Force the End of the Global Net Zero Fiasco”, argues that U.S. fossil fuel expansion will undermine the global net-zero push. The claim? That cheap energy from oil and gas will drive manufacturing back to the U.S., force other nations to reconsider their green ambitions, and give America a geopolitical advantage.
This perspective is not isolated. It aligns with broader energy strategies championed by the Trump administration, which emphasized “energy dominance” as a national security and economic policy. The belief is that leveraging domestic fossil fuels can reduce reliance on foreign energy, strengthen geopolitical leverage, and create domestic jobs. Additionally, Chris Wright, now Secretary of Energy, in his “Bettering Human Lives” report, argues that hydrocarbons remain crucial for economic growth and human prosperity. While these arguments highlight the benefits of fossil fuels, they overlook significant global economic, policy, and technological shifts that challenge this view.
I enjoy reading contrarian opinions like this—not necessarily because I agree, but because they offer valuable insights into different perspectives. Sometimes, we learn more by challenging our own assumptions than by reinforcing them.
But is this narrative grounded in reality? Let’s break it down based on global energy trends, economic shifts, and the rise of green technology.
Approaching Peak Fossil?
Claiming that we are in an energy transition can be controversial, as fossil fuel use is still rising. However, more and more data points indicate that we are approaching peak fossil. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and BloombergNEF both project a decline in fossil fuel reliance, starting in a few years. All the IEA’s scenarios show that clean energy investments are growing exponentially, with renewables becoming the cheapest and most scalable energy source.
Even major energy players like BP and ExxonMobil are adjusting forecasts, acknowledging that demand for fossil fuels is peaking. Betting on a fossil fuel resurgence goes against global economic and policy trends.
China’s Green Tech Dominance is Reshaping the Market
While the U.S. pivots back to fossil fuels, China is doubling down on renewables, EVs, and green manufacturing—and reaping the benefits. China now produces:
? 80% of the world’s solar panels;
? 60% of global wind turbines;
? 50%+ of the world’s EVs.
The result? Developing nations increasingly choose China’s green technology over fossil fuels, thanks to lower costsand reduced exposure to volatile oil prices.
A great example: EV adoption in Africa, India, and Southeast Asia. From electric two-wheelers in India to solar-powered microgrids in sub-Saharan Africa, developing countries are leapfrogging traditional energy models in favour of affordable, stable, and cleaner energy solutions.
Fossil Fuels = Geopolitical Risk, Not Strength
The Heritage Foundation argues that fossil fuel dominance will enhance U.S. geopolitical power. But history suggests otherwise.
Oil price shocks (like the 1973 and 2022 crises) cause economic instability.
Countries dependent on fossil fuel exports (Russia, Venezuela) face severe economic swings.
Green energy reduces reliance on geopolitically unstable suppliers like petrostates. On the other hand, solar ponels, batteries and EVs will continue to work, regardless of what happens in their country of origin.
Nations that invest in renewables then shield themselves from price volatility and boost energy security.
The Big Question: Is the U.S. Betting on the Past Instead of the Future?
Instead of doubling down on fossil fuels, the real opportunity lies in leading the green transition. The U.S. has the talent, capital, and technology to dominate clean energy—but will it seize the moment, or let China take the lead?
What do you think? Is fossil fuel dominance a viable strategy, or a losing bet in the long run? Let’s discuss.
