{"id":774,"date":"2026-04-20T15:49:26","date_gmt":"2026-04-20T20:49:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/?p=774"},"modified":"2026-06-21T15:55:44","modified_gmt":"2026-06-21T20:55:44","slug":"500-mw-of-projects-for-300-mw-targeted-a-large-scale-test-for-hydro-quebec","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/500-mw-of-projects-for-300-mw-targeted-a-large-scale-test-for-hydro-quebec\/","title":{"rendered":"500 MW of projects for 300 MW targeted: a large-scale test for Hydro-Qu\u00e9bec"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"908\" height=\"510\" src=\"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-775\" srcset=\"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image.png 908w, https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/image-624x350.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 908px) 100vw, 908px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1119\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/hydro-quebec\/\">Hydro Qu\u00e9bec<\/a> announced last week that it had received 60 bids totalling 481&nbsp;MW for its first 300&nbsp;MW solar call for tenders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1120\">This is an important signal for the entire industry. But we must avoid two simplistic readings: neither minimizing the importance of this step nor concluding too quickly that a mature market is emerging.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1121\"><em>Note: This text has been proofread by people in the industry before publication. Their comments validated its robustness and clarity. They may recognize themselves in this acknowledgement.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1122\">(LinkedIn: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/500-mw-projects-300-targeted-large-scale-test-benoit-marcoux-yzgke\/\">https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/500-mw-projects-300-targeted-large-scale-test-benoit-marcoux-yzgke\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1123\">Solar formally enters the system<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1124\">The first observation is institutional.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1125\">Solar photovoltaics is now formally entering Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s energy system as a recognized and organized component. It is no longer a marginal or experimental topic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1126\">The submission of 60 projects, spread across 14 regions, with significant involvement from local and Indigenous communities, confirms that an ecosystem is beginning to emerge.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1127\">But this signal should not be mistaken for industrialization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1128\">An emerging market: real competition, but still limited<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1129\">The submissions total 481&nbsp;MW for a 300&nbsp;MW procurement. There is competition, but it remains moderate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1130\">In mature markets, oversubscription is typically much higher, driven by developers capable of scaling and replicating projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1131\">Here, the market is still in a structuring phase.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1132\">Two characteristics stand out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1133\">First, <strong>strong concentration<\/strong>. A few developers submitted full portfolios totalling tens of MW each. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/natural-forces\/\">Natural Forces<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/innergex-energie-renouvelable-inc\/\">Innergex<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/nutrinor\/\">NUTRINOR COOP\u00c9RATIVE<\/a> stand out, with combined portfolios representing roughly two thirds of the targeted volume.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1134\">Second, a <strong>long tail of small projects<\/strong>. Most bidders submitted only one or two projects, often of limited size. Even structured players like <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/bluearth-renewables-inc-\/\">BluEarth Renewables<\/a> adopted a selective approach.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1135\"><strong>The local base is nonetheless strong<\/strong>: 13 of the 17 bidders are Qu\u00e9bec-based, representing 28 projects and 286&nbsp;MW. Several Canadian players created dedicated entities to operate in this context.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1136\"><strong>Indigenous participation is also notable<\/strong>, with a significant share of projects involving local communities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1137\">Finally, the <strong>relative absence of large international developers<\/strong> is worth noting. Players such as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/edf\/\">EDF<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/iberdrola\/\">Iberdrola<\/a> , <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/enelgroup\/\">Enel Group<\/a> or <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/nexteraksa\/\">NextEra<\/a> are not present. This may help explain the level of competition observed and appears consistent with certain features of the procurement design\u2014particularly project size, structure, and requirements\u2014which are less aligned with large-scale industrial deployment models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1138\">In summary, the market exists and is responding, but it has not yet reached the depth and level of industrialization seen elsewhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1139\">A procurement approach that structures and constrains the market<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1140\">The central issue lies in how Hydro-Qu\u00e9bec structured this procurement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1141\">Projects must be under 25&nbsp;MW and connected to the distribution network. They must also meet strict timelines and rigorous requirements regarding local content, economic benefits, partnerships, and technical specifications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1142\">This design serves legitimate objectives:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>limiting impacts on the grid<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ensuring social acceptability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>maximizing local economic benefits<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1144\">But it also has structuring and constraining effects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1145\">It imposes a fragmented model, limits economies of scale, increases project complexity, restricts knowledge transfer from more mature markets, and introduces tight technical requirements that tend to increase costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1146\">In addition, there is a bias toward prequalified equipment. Hydro-Qu\u00e9bec maintains a list of approved inverters. Deviating from this list requires additional validation (testing, lab reports, manufacturer requirements), increasing technical burden and timelines while reducing technological flexibility. In practice, this limits competition among equipment suppliers and may force developers to select more expensive or less optimized solutions, directly impacting project costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1147\">A model with incomplete information<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1148\">A more subtle but critical issue concerns the availability of grid information.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1149\">In the current model, bidders move forward with partial information on grid capacity. Detailed integration studies are conducted only after submissions are filed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1150\">In many ways, this resembles a game of \u201cBattleship\u201d: you pick a location, submit\u2026 and only later find out whether the site was viable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1151\">This is not purely random. Developers rely on rules and empirical heuristics. But uncertainty remains significant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1152\">By contrast, in Ontario, information on available distribution capacity\u2014particularly on medium-voltage lines\u2014is publicly available. Unlike the \u201cBattleship\u201d approach, this transparency is akin to playing with a map where target locations are partially visible before making a move: uncertainty is reduced upfront, and project allocation improves significantly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1153\">The hidden cost: risk transfer<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1154\">A significant portion of risk is transferred to developers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>permitting<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>interconnection<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>schedule compliance<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>grid integration uncertainty<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1156\">This approach is coherent from Hydro-Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1157\">But it has a mechanical effect: developers incorporate these risks into their pricing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1158\">To put it another way, when the utility lowers its own risk, it ultimately leads to higher overall project costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1159\">A more constrained financing environment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1160\">The questions submitted during the procurement process are revealing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1161\">Many relate to revenue structure, contractual clauses, and compensation mechanisms.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1162\">These are typical indicators of financing concerns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1163\">In this context:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>cost of capital increases<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>risk buffers grow<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1165\">Uncertainty around grid integration amplifies this effect: without ex ante visibility on capacity and integration costs, developers and lenders must incorporate an additional risk premium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1166\">Result: part of this is reflected in the price per kWh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1167\">A long process, reflecting structural constraints<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1168\">Time is also a critical factor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1169\">The process spans several years:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>likely initiated after the 2035 Action Plan (2023)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>accelerated following decree no. 1376\u20132024<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>procurement launched in 2025<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>bids submitted in 2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>decision expected in 2027<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>commissioning planned for 2029<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1171\">In other words, roughly six years between initial policy direction and electricity production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1172\">This timeline is long compared to more mature solar markets, but it reflects Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s institutional context:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>regulatory requirements<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>grid coordination<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>social acceptability<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>structuring of an emerging market<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1174\">In this context, the slower pace also reflects a deliberate choice for prudence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1175\">That said, if the target of 3,000&nbsp;MW of solar by 2035 is to be met, the pace will need to accelerate significantly. This will likely require concrete actions such as prequalifying interconnection points, publishing available grid capacity, standardizing contracts, increasing procurement sizes, and simplifying permitting processes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1176\">A useful comparison: Ontario<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1177\">The contrast with Ontario is instructive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1178\">In April 2026, Ontario awarded contracts totalling 1,315&nbsp;MW (solar and wind) at an average cost of approximately 8.8\u00a2\/kWh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1179\">Several elements stand out:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>much larger volumes<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>broader competition<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>a more developed ecosystem<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1181\">While not a fully mature market, Ontario benefits from a more advanced industrial base from which Qu\u00e9bec could draw lessons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1182\">Two approaches emerge: a cautious and tightly structured model in Qu\u00e9bec, and a more industrialized, scale-driven approach in Ontario focused on cost reduction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1183\">These differences directly influence costs, timelines, and the ability to scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember1184\">Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1185\">This procurement marks an important step.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1186\">It introduces solar into Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s system in a structured and cautious manner.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1187\">But it also highlights the challenges ahead: costs, timelines, execution capacity, and ecosystem development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1188\">Solar is not inherently expensive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1189\">But the way it is integrated into the system can be.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember1190\">The next phase will be decisive: moving from a controlled pilot approach to true large-scale deployment.<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top:2em;\">\r\n      Shortlink:\r\n  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This is an important signal for the entire industry. But we must avoid two simplistic readings: neither minimizing the importance of this step nor concluding too quickly that a mature market is emerging. Note: [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[39,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-quebec-canada","category-solar-energy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=774"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/774\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":776,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/774\/revisions\/776"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}