{"id":555,"date":"2025-03-05T12:41:28","date_gmt":"2025-03-05T17:41:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/?p=555"},"modified":"2025-12-30T15:14:19","modified_gmt":"2025-12-30T20:14:19","slug":"solar-storage-vs-hydropower-for-quebecs-winter-peak-an-estimate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/solar-storage-vs-hydropower-for-quebecs-winter-peak-an-estimate\/","title":{"rendered":"Solar + Storage vs. Hydropower for Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s Winter Peak: An Estimate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"936\" height=\"342\" src=\"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-3.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-556\" srcset=\"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-3.png 936w, https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-3-300x110.png 300w, https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-3-768x281.png 768w, https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/image-3-624x228.png 624w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 936px) 100vw, 936px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember62\"><strong>Can solar + batteries help reduce winter peak electricity demand in Qu\u00e9bec?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember63\">This initial analysis suggests that <strong>solar + 4-hour storage is 1\/3 cheaper than hydropower + transmission per MW of peak capacity.<\/strong> While <strong>hydro remains critical for&nbsp;seasonal storage<\/strong>, <strong>solar + storage can&nbsp;optimize its use, reduce peak-hour dispatch, and provide ancillary grid services.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Cost per effective winter peak MW:<\/strong> $3.75M (Solar + Storage) vs. $7.10M (Hydro + Transmission).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>O&amp;M Costs:<\/strong> Solar + Storage: $20k\/MW\/year; Hydro: $75k\/MW\/year.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>50-Year Lifetime Cost per MW:<\/strong> $7.25M (Solar) vs. $10.85M (Hydro).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember65\"><strong>I was taken aback<\/strong> by the initial evaluation\u2019s suggestion that solar panels and batteries could be a cost-effective solution for winter peak shaving. However, <strong>a more in-depth analysis is necessary<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember66\">(LinkedIn : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/solar-storage-vs-hydropower-qu%25C3%25A9becs-winter-peak-estimate-marcoux-etlve\/\">https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/pulse\/solar-storage-vs-hydropower-qu%25C3%25A9becs-winter-peak-estimate-marcoux-etlve\/<\/a>)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember68\">Introduction<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember69\">Qu\u00e9bec\u2019s electricity system is largely designed to meet winter peak demand, driven by electric heating during cold spells. The province\u2019s <strong>hydropower reservoirs provide long-term seasonal energy storage<\/strong>, but <strong>can solar power, paired with batteries, help&nbsp;shave daily winter peaks<\/strong> cost effectively? This article provides an <strong>initial comparison<\/strong> of <strong>utility-scale solar with 4-hour LFP battery storage<\/strong> and <strong>hydropower with long-distance transmission<\/strong>, focusing on <strong>cost per effective MW available during peak hours<\/strong> in winter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember70\">1. The Correlation Between Cold Temperatures and Solar Irradiance<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember71\">A key concern with solar in winter is <strong>low irradiance<\/strong> due to shorter days and the sun\u2019s lower angle. However, there is a <strong>notable correlation between clear skies and cold temperatures<\/strong> in Qu\u00e9bec.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Cold air masses are often associated with high-pressure systems<\/strong>, which bring <strong>clear skies<\/strong> and maximize solar output.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Solar panels operate more efficiently in cold weather<\/strong>, improving performance.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>During the coldest winter peaks, solar generation is often strong<\/strong>, and reverberation from snow cover can further increase the solar irradiance reaching the panels.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>The equivalent of 2\u20133 hours of solar generation can be expected during a short winter day<\/strong>, justifying the need for <strong>1.5&nbsp;MW of solar per 1 MW\/4 MWh of battery storage<\/strong> to ensure full battery charging each day.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember73\">However, winter solar <strong>cannot replace baseload generation<\/strong>, as overall production is still much lower than in summer. Instead, its <strong>best winter role is to provide peak shaving during cold spells<\/strong> when paired with batteries, while <strong>minimizing water withdrawals from the reservoirs throughout the year<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember74\">2. Cost Per MW for Winter Peak Demand<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember75\">To ensure a fair comparison, we examine the <strong>cost per MW of actual peak power availability in winter<\/strong>, rather than installed capacity alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.licdn.com\/dms\/image\/v2\/D4E12AQGlnRtrhZuekQ\/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488\/B4EZUFgm.CHcAQ-\/0\/1739554189821?e=1746662400&amp;v=beta&amp;t=d6jq4SCR9-KvwVqVQSxf2sMdy7pWJJuf_CMdmV382R8\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember78\"><strong>Notes on cost derivation:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Solar costs are based on Canadian utility-scale photovoltaic system pricing, with cost reductions expected over time.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Battery costs are derived from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) projections for LFP battery systems with a 4-hour duration.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The batteries do not necessarily need to be collocated with the solar plants. They can be placed in locations where they offer the most significant advantages, such as on Montr\u00e9al\u2019s island near large loads.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Hydropower costs are based on reported capital expenditures for projects such as La&nbsp;Romaine and Gull Island.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Transmission costs follow reported 735&nbsp;kV line costs from projects such as Chamouchouane\u2013Bout-de-l\u2019\u00cele and Churchill Falls expansions.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember80\">Cold days typically yield good solar power, but there are cloudy cold days with less solar generation. On such days, hydropower can supplement solar to charge batteries between morning and evening peaks. Conversely, during warmer periods, excess solar generation can reduce water withdrawals. Solar and hydropower complement each other.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember81\">This comparison provides median cost estimates; actual project costs will depend on site-specific factors, regulatory considerations, and technology advancements. Specific references for further reading are included at the end.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember82\">3. Operating &amp; Maintenance (O&amp;M) Costs<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.licdn.com\/dms\/image\/v2\/D4E12AQE-MOhf4Nsn8g\/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488\/B4EZUFg_0DHUAU-\/0\/1739554291400?e=1746662400&amp;v=beta&amp;t=Z0OdvYvDQP7aao0gSjQiaKqkI2GepnUfC2_SEaPikT0\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember84\"><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Solar + storage has lower maintenance costs<\/strong>, as batteries and panels require minimal servicing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hydropower has higher O&amp;M due to dam maintenance, turbine upkeep, and transmission maintenance.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember86\">4. Expected Lifespan<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.licdn.com\/dms\/image\/v2\/D4E12AQFdtHBcPhaadQ\/article-inline_image-shrink_1500_2232\/B4EZUFhMheH0AU-\/0\/1739554343568?e=1746662400&amp;v=beta&amp;t=LhlGkJlfyj8X-OF8OdFhX-il49Q3rPB1b0rCEdhhWU8\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember89\">5. Long-Term Cost Comparison Over 50 Years<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember90\">Since <strong>hydropower lasts longer<\/strong>, let\u2019s normalize total costs over <strong>50 years<\/strong> for a fairer comparison.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/media.licdn.com\/dms\/image\/v2\/D4E12AQFw9GiuMXRiqQ\/article-inline_image-shrink_1000_1488\/B4EZUFhX3MG0AQ-\/0\/1739554390046?e=1746662400&amp;v=beta&amp;t=qiJbtBVHTR3L-0skJJtsJ4kr45ixocN9wisx2e3Kzqg\" alt=\"\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember93\"><strong>Key Takeaways:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Even when including a full replacement at Year&nbsp;25, solar + storage remains ~33% cheaper than hydropower.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Hydropower provides superior long-term reliability, but at a higher total cost.<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember95\">These cost estimates do not include financing costs, net present value of future expenditures, or potential future cost reductions for solar and battery technologies. Future projects could have different cost structures due to technological advancements and changing economic conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember96\">6. Conclusion<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Solar + 4-hour storage is a cost-effective way to reduce hydro dispatch during peak hours.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>It is nearly 50% cheaper per MW of peak capacity than hydropower with transmission.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>While hydropower remains essential for seasonal energy storage, solar + storage can optimize its use.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Batteries provide additional ancillary services, further improving financial viability.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Future cost trends and project-specific conditions could change these results.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember98\">7. References &amp; Further Reading<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/hydro-quebec\/\">Hydro Qu\u00e9bec<\/a> : Chamouchouane\u2013Bout-de-l\u2019\u00cele Transmission Project <a href=\"https:\/\/nouvelles.hydroquebec.com\/nouvelles\/communiques\/tout-quebec\/hydro-quebec-inaugure-des-infrastructures-construites-au-cout-de-1-3-g.html\">https:\/\/nouvelles.hydroquebec.com\/nouvelles\/communiques\/tout-quebec\/hydro-quebec-inaugure-des-infrastructures-construites-au-cout-de-1-3-g.html<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/newfoundland-labrador-hydro\/\">Newfoundland &amp; Labrador Hydro<\/a> : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ourchapter.ca\/fact-sheet\/\">735&nbsp;kV Transmission for Gull Island &amp; Churchill Falls Expansion<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/hydro-quebec\/\">Hydro Qu\u00e9bec<\/a> : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hydroquebec.com\/romaine\/\">La&nbsp;Romaine Hydropower Complex<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/dunsky-energy-climate-advisors\/\">Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors<\/a> : <a href=\"https:\/\/cleanenergycanada.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/01\/RenewableCostForecasts_CleanEnergyCanada_Dunsky_2023_SlideDeck.pdf\">Cost of Renewable Generation in Canada<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/cer-rec\/\">Canada Energy Regulator | R\u00e9gie de l\u2019\u00e9nergie du Canada<\/a> : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rec-cer.gc.ca\/en\/data-analysis\/energy-commodities\/electricity\/report\/archive\/solar-power-economics\/economics-solar-power-in-canada-appendix-methods.html\">Economics of Solar Power in Canada<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/company\/national-renewable-energy-laboratory\/\">National Renewable Energy Laboratory<\/a> : <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nrel.gov\/docs\/fy23osti\/85332.pdf\">Cost Projections for Utility-Scale Battery Storage<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"ember100\">Final Note: More Analysis is Needed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember101\">This is a basic analysis that does not take into account all factors, including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Capacity factor variations due to weather patterns.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Future energy price projections<\/strong>, especially if a different market structure comes to exist.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Potential regulatory incentives<\/strong>, such as if carbon credits could apply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"ember103\">Before making investment decisions, a <strong>detailed feasibility study<\/strong> would be required.<\/p>\n<div style=\"margin-top:2em;\">\r\n      Shortlink:\r\n    <a 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This initial analysis suggests that solar + 4-hour storage is 1\/3 cheaper than hydropower + transmission per MW of peak capacity. While hydro remains critical for&nbsp;seasonal storage, solar + storage can&nbsp;optimize its use, reduce peak-hour dispatch, and provide ancillary grid services. I was [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10,39,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-555","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-energy-storage","category-quebec-canada","category-solar-energy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=555"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":714,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555\/revisions\/714"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=555"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=555"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}