{"id":179,"date":"2018-03-01T17:39:12","date_gmt":"2018-03-01T22:39:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/?p=179"},"modified":"2018-03-01T17:39:12","modified_gmt":"2018-03-01T22:39:12","slug":"wind-and-solar-pv-are-becoming-a-chinese-story","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wind-and-solar-pv-are-becoming-a-chinese-story\/","title":{"rendered":"Wind and Solar PV Are Becoming a Chinese Story"},"content":{"rendered":"

In 2015, China became world’s largest producer of photovoltaic power, and this is clearly a policy enshrined in the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020).[i]<\/a> This plan calls to increase installed wind power capacity to 210 GW and solar PV capacity to 105 GW by 2020 \u2013 about a third more than in 2016, although developers\u2019 enthusiasm means that the solar PV 2020 objective will be achieved in 2018, given 34 GW added in 2016 and 54 GW in 2017 \u2013 more than the rest of the world combined. To put this 54 GW in context, it is a third more that the nameplate capacity of the electricity producers in the province of Qu\u00e9bec.[ii]<\/a> However, contrary to what happened in Europe, China\u2019s policy followed the initial price reduction in wind and solar power. If Europe lit the renewable fire some time ago, China now fuels it.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
\nFigure 1 The growth of wind and solar PV capacity saw Europe leading in early years, but China is now the main source of growth.[iii]<\/strong><\/a><\/em><\/p>\n

China now dominates new installed capacity for wind and solar PV, and this keen interest is enshrined in its 5-year plans \u2013 China will continue to have the largest share for years to come.<\/strong><\/p>\n

You may have noticed how small wind and solar PV capacities are in Canada in comparison to the rest of the world \u2013 just 12\u00a0GW for wind and 3\u00a0GW for solar PV, and barely visible in Figure 3. Canada is a small player for wind and solar PV. The rest of the world adds as much wind and solar PV capacity per year as the entire electricity generation capacity currently installed in Canada, all sources combined.<\/strong><\/p>\n

While new generation capacity from wind and solar is being installed at an increasing rate, investments have been essentially flat since 2011, compressed by dropping unit costs:[iv]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

Figure 2 While new generation capacity from wind and solar is being installed at an increasing rate, investments have been essentially flat since 2011.<\/em><\/p>\n

With lower unit costs per MW, developers can install more capacity for a given investment. This phenomenon can be expected if wind and solar technologies follow a pattern like Moore\u2019s Law \u2013 we are not paying more for a computer than we did years ago, we are just getting more for the same price (or even lower price).<\/p>\n

This flat 2011-2017 trend also masks major difference across the world: China\u2019s new wind and solar investments went from $42B in 2011 to $123B in 2017 \u2013 almost half of global investments. Conversely, European investments went down in the same period, while North America was relatively flat. Canada\u2019s investments in 2017 were a modest $3B.<\/p>\n

The domination of Chinese investments is even greater when one considers China foreign investments in clean energy. China being already the largest market for renewable energy, it is developing the renewable sector internationally, aiming to be a leader along the entire value chain. China\u2019s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is driving Chinese energy investments overseas. The initiative already has driven solar equipment exports of U.S.$8 billion<\/strong>.[v]<\/a> China is not content to be a manufacturer and it is also looking for opportunities to develop Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) standards that it can apply internationally, plus operating credentials. China is building corporate giants to fulfill those ambitions, such as Shenhua Group, now the largest wind developer in the world, with 33 GW of capacity.[vi]<\/a> In 2016, Xinjiang Goldwind ranked 3rd for onshore and also 3rd for offshore wind turbine manufacturing[vii]<\/a>. China has become the number one exporter of environmental goods and services, overtaking the U.S. and Germany.<\/strong><\/p>\n

————————–<\/p>\n

[i]<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 See https:\/\/www.iea.org\/policiesandmeasures\/pams\/china\/name-161254-en.php<\/a> and https:\/\/translate.google.com\/translate?hl=en&sl=auto&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.nea.gov.cn%2F2016-12%2F19%2Fc_135916140.htm<\/a>, accessed on 20180116.<\/p>\n

[ii]<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Statistics Canada. Table 127-0009 – Installed generating capacity, by class of electricity producer, annual (kilowatts), http:\/\/www5.statcan.gc.ca\/cansim\/a47<\/a>, accessed 20180131. In 2015, public electricity producers in Qu\u00e9bec had an installed generating capacity of 37 GW, while privates ones has 3 GW.<\/p>\n

[iii]<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 IRENA (2017), Renewable Energy Statistics 2017, The International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, with estimates based on Bloomberg New Energy Finance for 2017.<\/p>\n

[iv]<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Clean Energy Investment Trends, Abraham Louw, Bloomberg New energy Finance, January 16, 2018.<\/p>\n

[v]<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 China 2017 Review, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IFEEA), p. 2.<\/p>\n

[vi]<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/us-china-power-shenhua-guodian-factbox\/factbox-shenhua-and-guodian-chinas-latest-state-marriage-idUSKCN1B918I<\/a>, accessed 20180118.<\/p>\n

[vii]<\/a> \u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 https:\/\/about.bnef.com\/blog\/vestas-reclaims-top-spot-annual-ranking-wind-turbine-makers\/<\/a>, accessed 20180118.<\/p>\n

\r\n Shortlink:\r\n https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wind-and-solar-pv-are-becoming-a-chinese-story\/<\/a>\r\n <\/div>\r\n\r\n
\r\n \r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \"\"\r\n<\/a>\r\n\r\n \r\n \r\n <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In 2015, China became world’s largest producer of photovoltaic power, and this is clearly a policy enshrined in the 13th five-year plan (2016-2020).[i] This plan calls to increase installed wind power capacity to 210 GW and solar PV capacity to 105 GW by 2020 \u2013 about a third more than in 2016, although developers\u2019 enthusiasm […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[8,7,9,14],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-179","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-economy","category-policies-and-regulatory","category-solar-energy","category-wind-energy"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=179"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":182,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/179\/revisions\/182"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=179"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=179"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/benoit.marcoux.ca\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=179"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}